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Johvi Phoenix vs Pärnu — Esiliiga B 2026

Johvi Phoenix
Johvi Phoenix
FT
0 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
5/4/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 9Kohtla-Järve kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Johvi Phoenix63%
×Draw18%
Pärnu20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johvi Phoenix
2.72
Pärnu
1.49

Johvi Phoenix creates 83% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

creates per match

Johvi Phoenix
3.11
Pärnu
0.89

allows per match

Johvi Phoenix
2.09
Pärnu
2.33

finishing

Johvi Phoenix+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johvi Phoenix ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Johvi Phoenix or draw
80%
Johvi Phoenix or Pärnu
82%
Draw or Pärnu
37%

Winning margin

Johvi Phoenix wins by 2+
42%
Pärnu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Johvi Phoenix 1+ goals
93%
Johvi Phoenix 2+ goals
75%
Johvi Phoenix 3+ goals
50%
Pärnu 1+ goals
77%
Pärnu 2+ goals
44%
Pärnu 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Johvi Phoenix (draw refunded)
76%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johvi Phoenix at home — creates 3.11, concedes 2.09 · 46 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johvi Phoenix attack 3.11 + Pärnu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.72

Pärnu attack 0.89 + Johvi Phoenix defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Johvi Phoenix scores more
63%
level
18%
Pärnu scores more
20%

Johvi Phoenix at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Johvi Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Johvi Phoenix vs Pärnu

Johvi Phoenix and Pärnu drew 0-0 in Esiliiga B on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Kohtla-Järve kunstmuruväljak in Järve.