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Johvi Phoenix vs Paide II — Esiliiga B 2026

Johvi Phoenix
Johvi Phoenix
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Paide II
Paide II
3/1/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 1Heino Lipp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Johvi Phoenix56%
×Draw19%
Paide II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johvi Phoenix
2.58
Paide II
1.71

Johvi Phoenix creates 51% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 19 away

creates per match

Johvi Phoenix
3.11
Paide II
1.32

allows per match

Johvi Phoenix
2.09
Paide II
2.05

finishing

Johvi Phoenix+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johvi Phoenix ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Johvi Phoenix or draw
75%
Johvi Phoenix or Paide II
81%
Draw or Paide II
44%

Winning margin

Johvi Phoenix wins by 2+
36%
Paide II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Johvi Phoenix 1+ goals
92%
Johvi Phoenix 2+ goals
72%
Johvi Phoenix 3+ goals
47%
Paide II 1+ goals
82%
Paide II 2+ goals
51%
Paide II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Johvi Phoenix (draw refunded)
69%
Paide II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johvi Phoenix at home — creates 3.11, concedes 2.09 · 46 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johvi Phoenix attack 3.11 + Paide II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.58

Paide II attack 1.32 + Johvi Phoenix defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Johvi Phoenix scores more
56%
level
19%
Paide II scores more
25%

Johvi Phoenix at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Johvi Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Johvi Phoenix vs Paide II

Johvi Phoenix beat Paide II 3-1 in Esiliiga B on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Heino Lipp Stadium in Johvi.