Johor Darul Takzim FC 2–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC

Johor Darul Takzim FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ulsan Hyundai FC

Park Yong-Woo 90+4' (OG)

L. Velázquez 5'

J. Amano 6'

4/30/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC42%

×Draw26%

Ulsan Hyundai FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Johor Darul Takzim FCExpected goals in this matchUlsan Hyundai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.26

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.47

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.26

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

1.46

creates per match

1.48

1.04

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.46

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.48

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.04

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw

68%

Johor Darul Takzim FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC

74%

Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC

58%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

20%

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

77%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

43%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

18%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

72%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

36%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

56%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.46 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.48 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

42%

level

26%

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

32%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Velázquez

Johor Darul Takzim FC · F

8.6

Match Events

4'

5'

6'

16'

29'

Lee Gyu-Seong← Won Du-Jae

43'

Kyu-seong Lee

55'

Lee Chung-Yong← Koh Myong-Jin

55'

Um Won-Sang← Yun Il-Lok

55'

Park Yong-Woo← J. Amano

64'

La'Vere Corbin-Ong

68'

Safawi Rasid← Afiq Fazail

73'

M. Koszta← V. Qazaishvili

83'

Leandro Velazquez

83'

Yong-uh Park

84'

Ramadhan Saifullah← LaVere Corbin-Ong

87'

Fernando Forestieri

90+4'

Park Yong-WooOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JohorUlsan

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots10

7Corners5

11Fouls19

Shots

20Total Shots10

3On Target4

12Off Target4

5Blocked2

11Inside Box7

9Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

388Total Passes313

306Accurate Passes229

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides3