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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Suwon Bluewings — AFC Champions League 2018

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
3/3/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC32%
×Draw27%
Suwon Bluewings41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.18
Suwon Bluewings
1.37

Suwon Bluewings creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.46
Suwon Bluewings
1.70

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.04
Suwon Bluewings
0.90

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Suwon Bluewings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
59%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Suwon Bluewings
73%
Draw or Suwon Bluewings
68%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
13%
Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
69%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
33%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
12%
Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
75%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
40%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
44%
Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.46 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.70 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
32%
level
27%
Suwon Bluewings scores more
41%

Suwon Bluewings at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Johor Darul Takzim FC 2–1 Suwon Bluewings

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1 in AFC Champions League on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin in Nusajaya.