Johor Darul Takzim FC 3–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Johor Darul Takzim FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

10/1/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 2Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC54%

×Draw26%

Shanghai Shenhua20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Johor Darul Takzim FCExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.85

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.56

Shanghai Shenhua

0.85

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 84% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

1.46

creates per match

0.67

1.04

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.46

Shanghai Shenhua

0.67

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.04

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw

80%

Johor Darul Takzim FC or Shanghai Shenhua

74%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

46%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

28%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

79%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

46%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

21%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

57%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

21%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

73%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.46 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

54%

level

26%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

20%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff