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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Perak — Malaysia Cup 2019

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FCadvanced
FT
8 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Perak
Perak
11/2/2023Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Semi-finalsStadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC79%
×Draw13%
Perak8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.96
Perak
0.86

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 244% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 12 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
3.41
Perak
1.25

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.48
Perak
2.50

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Perak+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Perak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
92%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Perak
87%
Draw or Perak
21%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
59%
Perak wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
95%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
79%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
55%
Perak 1+ goals
58%
Perak 2+ goals
21%
Perak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
91%
Perak (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Perak away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 3.41 + Perak defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.96

Perak attack 1.25 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
79%
level
13%
Perak scores more
8%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Johor Darul Takzim FC 8–1 Perak

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Perak 8-1 in Malaysia Cup on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin in Nusajaya.