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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Machida Zelvia — AFC Champions League 2018

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
9/30/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 2Sultan Ibrahim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC25%
×Draw30%
Machida Zelvia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.83
Machida Zelvia
1.22

Machida Zelvia creates 47% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.46
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.04
Machida Zelvia
0.20

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
55%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Machida Zelvia
70%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
75%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
8%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
56%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
20%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
5%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
70%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
34%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
36%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.46 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.83

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
25%
level
30%
Machida Zelvia scores more
45%

Machida Zelvia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Johor Darul Takzim FC 0–0 Machida Zelvia

Johor Darul Takzim FC and Machida Zelvia drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Sultan Ibrahim Stadium in Johor Bahru.