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Jocoro vs Sonsonate — Primera Division 2019

Jocoro
Jocoro
CANC
20:00
Sonsonate
Sonsonate
3/22/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 14Complejo Deportivo Tierra de Fuego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jocoro47%
×Draw24%
Sonsonate29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jocoro
1.69
Sonsonate
1.26

Jocoro creates 34% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 36 away

creates per match

Jocoro
1.52
Sonsonate
1.17

allows per match

Jocoro
1.35
Sonsonate
1.86

finishing

Jocoro+0.00on par
Sonsonate+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jocoro ↓

Sonsonate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jocoro or draw
71%
Jocoro or Sonsonate
76%
Draw or Sonsonate
53%

Winning margin

Jocoro wins by 2+
25%
Sonsonate wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jocoro 1+ goals
82%
Jocoro 2+ goals
50%
Jocoro 3+ goals
24%
Sonsonate 1+ goals
72%
Sonsonate 2+ goals
36%
Sonsonate 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jocoro (draw refunded)
62%
Sonsonate (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jocoro at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

Sonsonate away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jocoro attack 1.52 + Sonsonate defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sonsonate attack 1.17 + Jocoro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jocoro scores more
47%
level
24%
Sonsonate scores more
29%

Jocoro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jocoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jocoro host Sonsonate

March 22, 2020: Jocoro take on Sonsonate in Primera Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jocoro host Sonsonate at Complejo Deportivo Tierra de Fuego.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.