Jocoro 6–5 Chalatenango: Result & Stats

Jocoro

FT

6 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Chalatenango

4/23/2022

Primera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 19Complejo Deportivo Tierra de Fuego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Jocoro46%

×Draw24%

Chalatenango30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JocoroExpected goals in this matchChalatenango

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.27

Jocoro

1.63

Chalatenango

1.27

Jocoro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 74 away

1.52

creates per match

1.18

1.35

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Jocoro

1.52

Chalatenango

1.18

allows per match

Jocoro

1.35

Chalatenango

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jocoro+0.00on par

Chalatenango+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jocoro ↓

Chalatenango →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jocoro or draw

70%

Jocoro or Chalatenango

76%

Draw or Chalatenango

54%

Winning margin

Jocoro wins by 2+

24%

Chalatenango wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jocoro 1+ goals

80%

Jocoro 2+ goals

48%

Jocoro 3+ goals

22%

Chalatenango 1+ goals

72%

Chalatenango 2+ goals

36%

Chalatenango 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jocoro (draw refunded)

61%

Chalatenango (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jocoro at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

Chalatenango away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jocoro attack 1.52 + Chalatenango defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Jocoro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jocoro scores more

46%

level

24%

Chalatenango scores more

30%

Jocoro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jocoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff