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JKT Tanzania vs Young Africans — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
FT
0 – 0
Young Africans
Young Africans
4/24/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 17Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JKT Tanzania19%
×Draw30%
Young Africans50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JKT Tanzania
0.63
Young Africans
1.22

Young Africans creates 94% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

JKT Tanzania
0.92
Young Africans
1.44

allows per match

JKT Tanzania
1.00
Young Africans
0.33

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw
50%
JKT Tanzania or Young Africans
70%
Draw or Young Africans
81%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
5%
Young Africans wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
47%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
13%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
3%
Young Africans 1+ goals
70%
Young Africans 2+ goals
34%
Young Africans 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
28%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.92 + Young Africans defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.63

Young Africans attack 1.44 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more
19%
level
30%
Young Africans scores more
50%

Young Africans at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JKT Tanzania vs Young Africans

JKT Tanzania and Young Africans drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Isamuhyo Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.