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JKT Tanzania vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
12/15/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 15Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JKT Tanzania45%
×Draw32%
Mashujaa23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JKT Tanzania
1.09
Mashujaa
0.68

JKT Tanzania creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

JKT Tanzania
0.90
Mashujaa
0.55

allows per match

JKT Tanzania
0.80
Mashujaa
1.29

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw
77%
JKT Tanzania or Mashujaa
68%
Draw or Mashujaa
55%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
19%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
66%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
30%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
10%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
49%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
15%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
66%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.90 + Mashujaa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Mashujaa attack 0.55 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more
45%
level
32%
Mashujaa scores more
23%

JKT Tanzania at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: JKT Tanzania 0–0 Mashujaa

JKT Tanzania and Mashujaa drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Isamuhyo Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.