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JKT Tanzania vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
12/18/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 14Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

JKT Tanzania42%
×Draw32%
Coastal Union26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JKT Tanzania
1.08
Coastal Union
0.77

JKT Tanzania creates 40% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 111 away

creates per match

JKT Tanzania
0.88
Coastal Union
0.72

allows per match

JKT Tanzania
0.81
Coastal Union
1.28

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw
74%
JKT Tanzania or Coastal Union
68%
Draw or Coastal Union
58%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
17%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
66%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
29%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
10%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
54%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
18%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
62%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.81 · 81 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.88 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Coastal Union attack 0.72 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more
42%
level
32%
Coastal Union scores more
26%

JKT Tanzania at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JKT Tanzania vs Coastal Union

Coastal Union beat JKT Tanzania 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 18, 2023.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.