Coastal Union 1–2 JKT Tanzania: Result & Stats

Coastal Union

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

JKT Tanzania

A. Makambo 22'

M. Bakari 67'

S. Karabaka 35'

9/22/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 2Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Coastal Union44%

×Draw31%

JKT Tanzania25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal UnionExpected goals in this matchJKT Tanzania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.79

Coastal Union

1.14

JKT Tanzania

0.79

Coastal Union creates 44% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

1.00

creates per match

0.79

0.78

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Coastal Union

1.00

JKT Tanzania

0.79

allows per match

Coastal Union

0.78

JKT Tanzania

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

JKT Tanzania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw

75%

Coastal Union or JKT Tanzania

69%

Draw or JKT Tanzania

56%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+

19%

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals

68%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

32%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

11%

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals

55%

JKT Tanzania 2+ goals

19%

JKT Tanzania 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

63%

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 36 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 1.00 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

JKT Tanzania attack 0.79 + Coastal Union defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coastal Union scores more

44%

level

31%

JKT Tanzania scores more

25%

Coastal Union at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coastal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Makambo↳ S. Abdallah

35'

C. Mkandala

35'

S. Karabaka↳ M. Bakari

46'

M. Andrea← C. Mkandala

67'

M. Bakari

74'

V. Mashaka← H. Dilunga

76'

L. Makame

83'

S. Khleffin← K. Gradi

86'

A. Kilemile← S. Khamis

86'

S. Kichuya← S. Karabaka

86'

H. Wahabi← M. Bakari

90+2'

H. Kapalata← P. P. Kasunda

Coastal

JKT

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Karabaka

⚽A

▼

A

▼

▼

⚽

46'▲M. Andrea←▼C. Mkandala

83'▲S. Khleffin←▼K. Gradi

Coastal Union substitutes

MnakiKhleffinGameNzonziMohamedMsangiMkongaMwalugalaAndrea

74'▲V. Mashaka←▼H. Dilunga

86'▲A. Kilemile←▼S. Khamis

86'▲S. Kichuya←▼S. Karabaka

86'▲H. Wahabi←▼M. Bakari

90+2'▲H. Kapalata←▼P. P. Kasunda

JKT Tanzania substitutes

IlundaKilemileKichuyaMashakaSongoWahabiKapalataMatikoMfaume