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JK Tabasalu vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Paide II
Paide II
8/5/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 21Tabasalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JK Tabasalu41%
×Draw21%
Paide II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JK Tabasalu
2.09
Paide II
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 63 away

creates per match

JK Tabasalu
1.78
Paide II
1.97

allows per match

JK Tabasalu
2.11
Paide II
2.40

finishing

JK Tabasalu+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JK Tabasalu ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

JK Tabasalu or draw
61%
JK Tabasalu or Paide II
79%
Draw or Paide II
59%

Winning margin

JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
23%
Paide II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
88%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
62%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
34%
Paide II 1+ goals
87%
Paide II 2+ goals
60%
Paide II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
51%
Paide II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JK Tabasalu at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JK Tabasalu attack 1.78 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Paide II attack 1.97 + JK Tabasalu defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

JK Tabasalu scores more
41%
level
21%
Paide II scores more
39%

JK Tabasalu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: JK Tabasalu 1–3 Paide II

Paide II beat JK Tabasalu 3-1 in Esiliiga A on August 5, 2024.

The match was played at Tabasalu Staadion in Tabasalu.