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JK Tabasalu vs Läänemaa Haapsalu — Esiliiga B 2026

JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
7/21/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 20Tabasalu Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JK Tabasalu59%
×Draw18%
Läänemaa Haapsalu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JK Tabasalu
2.60
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.58

JK Tabasalu creates 65% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 37 away

creates per match

JK Tabasalu
1.56
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.27

allows per match

JK Tabasalu
1.89
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.65

finishing

JK Tabasalu+0.00on par
Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JK Tabasalu ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

JK Tabasalu or draw
77%
JK Tabasalu or Läänemaa Haapsalu
82%
Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu
41%

Winning margin

JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
39%
Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
92%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
73%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
47%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
79%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
47%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
72%
Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JK Tabasalu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JK Tabasalu attack 1.56 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.60

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + JK Tabasalu defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

JK Tabasalu scores more
59%
level
18%
Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
23%

JK Tabasalu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JK Tabasalu vs Läänemaa Haapsalu

JK Tabasalu beat Läänemaa Haapsalu 4-0 in Esiliiga B on July 21, 2025.

The match was played at Tabasalu Arena in Tabasalu.