JK Tabasalu 1–4 Flora II: Result & Stats

JK Tabasalu

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Flora II

R. Priimann 46' (OG)

J. Oja 87'

R. Lukas 50'

M. Kalimullin 44'

A. Kaares 35'

9/19/2024

Esiliiga A · Round 28Tabasalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JK Tabasalu32%

×Draw21%

Flora II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JK TabasaluExpected goals in this matchFlora II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.07

JK Tabasalu

1.67

Flora II

2.07

Flora II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 119 away

1.78

creates per match

2.03

2.11

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

JK Tabasalu

1.78

Flora II

2.03

allows per match

JK Tabasalu

2.11

Flora II

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JK Tabasalu ↓

Flora II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

JK Tabasalu or draw

53%

JK Tabasalu or Flora II

79%

Draw or Flora II

68%

Winning margin

JK Tabasalu wins by 2+

15%

Flora II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

JK Tabasalu 1+ goals

81%

JK Tabasalu 2+ goals

50%

JK Tabasalu 3+ goals

23%

Flora II 1+ goals

87%

Flora II 2+ goals

61%

Flora II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)

40%

Flora II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JK Tabasalu at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

Flora II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JK Tabasalu attack 1.78 + Flora II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Flora II attack 2.03 + JK Tabasalu defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

JK Tabasalu scores more

32%

level

21%

Flora II scores more

47%

Flora II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

34'

35'

44'

46'

R. PriimannOwn goal

48'

50'

54'

57'

62'

M. Leivategija← S. Prunn

62'

J. Oja← A. Kaares

72'

R. Valdmets

80'

J. Janter← K. Pormeister

80'

R. Riigov← M. Vaherna

80'

R. Roste← S. Suppi

82'

J. Lillemets← M. Kukk

84'

R. Soosalu← R. Valdmets

87'

J. Oja

JK

Flora

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alan Arruda

80'▲J. Janter←▼K. Pormeister

80'▲R. Riigov←▼M. Vaherna

80'▲R. Roste←▼S. Suppi

JK Tabasalu substitutes

JanterRiigovRosteRaaperEnnusteKoortMikkerPaasmaLinde

Manager: A. Altsaar

62'▲M. Leivategija←▼S. Prunn

62'▲J. Oja←▼A. Kaares

82'▲J. Lillemets←▼M. Kukk

84'▲R. Soosalu←▼R. Valdmets

Flora II substitutes

LeivategijaOjaLillemetsSoosaluAbramenkoTammLeppikRandväliTovstik