Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

JK Tabasalu vs FC Tallinn — Cup 2020

JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinnadvanced
10/31/2024CupCup · Round of 16Tabasalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

JK Tabasalu72%
×Draw13%
FC Tallinn14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JK Tabasalu
3.75
FC Tallinn
1.70

JK Tabasalu creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

JK Tabasalu
6.29
FC Tallinn
2.40

allows per match

JK Tabasalu
1.00
FC Tallinn
1.20

finishing

JK Tabasalu+0.00on par
FC Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JK Tabasalu ↓

FC Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

JK Tabasalu or draw
86%
JK Tabasalu or FC Tallinn
87%
Draw or FC Tallinn
28%

Winning margin

JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
55%
FC Tallinn wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
97%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
88%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
70%
FC Tallinn 1+ goals
82%
FC Tallinn 2+ goals
51%
FC Tallinn 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
84%
FC Tallinn (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JK Tabasalu at home — creates 6.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

FC Tallinn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JK Tabasalu attack 6.29 + FC Tallinn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 3.75

FC Tallinn attack 2.40 + JK Tabasalu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

JK Tabasalu scores more
72%
level
13%
FC Tallinn scores more
14%

JK Tabasalu at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: JK Tabasalu 1–3 FC Tallinn

FC Tallinn beat JK Tabasalu 3-1 in Cup on October 31, 2024.

The match was played at Tabasalu Staadion in Tabasalu.