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JJK vs VIFK — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

JJK
JJK
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
VIFK
VIFK
7/10/2022Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 7Harjun stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JJK65%
×Draw20%
VIFK15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJK
2.17
VIFK
0.95

JJK creates 128% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

JJK
2.37
VIFK
1.36

allows per match

JJK
0.53
VIFK
1.97

finishing

JJK+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

JJK or draw
85%
JJK or VIFK
80%
Draw or VIFK
35%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+
41%
VIFK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals
89%
JJK 2+ goals
64%
JJK 3+ goals
36%
VIFK 1+ goals
61%
VIFK 2+ goals
25%
VIFK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)
81%
VIFK (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

VIFK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.97 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 2.37 + VIFK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.17

VIFK attack 1.36 + JJK defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

JJK scores more
65%
level
20%
VIFK scores more
15%

JJK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JJK 4 – 0 VIFK

JJK beat VIFK 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Harjun stadion in Jyväskylä.