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JJK vs RoPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

JJK
JJK
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RoPS II
RoPS II
9/18/2021Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 12Harjun stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JJK58%
×Draw21%
RoPS II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJK
2.02
RoPS II
1.13

JJK creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

JJK
2.37
RoPS II
1.73

allows per match

JJK
0.53
RoPS II
1.67

finishing

JJK+0.00on par
RoPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

RoPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

JJK or draw
79%
JJK or RoPS II
79%
Draw or RoPS II
42%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+
35%
RoPS II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals
87%
JJK 2+ goals
60%
JJK 3+ goals
33%
RoPS II 1+ goals
68%
RoPS II 2+ goals
31%
RoPS II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)
73%
RoPS II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

RoPS II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 2.37 + RoPS II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

RoPS II attack 1.73 + JJK defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

JJK scores more
58%
level
21%
RoPS II scores more
21%

JJK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JJK vs RoPS II

JJK and RoPS II drew 0-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Harjun stadion in Jyväskylä.