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JJK vs KajHa — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

JJK
JJK
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
KajHa
KajHa
8/14/2022Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 10Harjun stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

JJK72%
×Draw17%
KajHa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJK
2.37
KajHa
0.79

JJK creates 200% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

JJK
2.37
KajHa
1.05

allows per match

JJK
0.53
KajHa
2.36

finishing

JJK+0.00on par
KajHa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

KajHa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

JJK or draw
89%
JJK or KajHa
83%
Draw or KajHa
28%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+
49%
KajHa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals
91%
JJK 2+ goals
68%
JJK 3+ goals
42%
KajHa 1+ goals
55%
KajHa 2+ goals
19%
KajHa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)
87%
KajHa (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

KajHa away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 2.37 + KajHa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.37

KajHa attack 1.05 + JJK defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

JJK scores more
72%
level
17%
KajHa scores more
11%

JJK at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: JJK 5–1 KajHa

JJK beat KajHa 5-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Harjun stadion in Jyväskylä.