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JJK vs Haka — Ykkönen 2026

JJK
JJK
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Haka
Haka
T. Petrescu 90+5'
G. Etock 90', 26'
J. Ahonen 74', 52'
8/10/2016YkkönenYkkönen · Round 9Harjun stadion (Jyväskylä)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

JJK30%
×Draw23%
Haka47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJK
1.42
Haka
1.83

Haka creates 29% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 23 away

creates per match

JJK
1.74
Haka
2.04

allows per match

JJK
1.63
Haka
1.09

finishing

JJK+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

JJK or draw
53%
JJK or Haka
77%
Draw or Haka
70%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+
13%
Haka wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals
76%
JJK 2+ goals
41%
JJK 3+ goals
17%
Haka 1+ goals
84%
Haka 2+ goals
54%
Haka 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)
39%
Haka (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.63 · 62 matches

Haka away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 1.74 + Haka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Haka attack 2.04 + JJK defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

JJK scores more
30%
level
23%
Haka scores more
47%

Haka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
G. Etock
52'
J. Ahonen
74'
J. Ahonen
90'
G. Etock
90+5'
T. Petrescu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: JJK 3–2 Haka

JJK beat Haka 3-2 in Ykkönen on August 10, 2016.

Goals: G. Etock (26', 90'), J. Ahonen (52', 74'), T. Petrescu (90+5').

The match was played at Harjun stadion (Jyväskylä).