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JJK vs AC Oulu — Ykkönen 2026

JJK
JJK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
M. Manninen 5'
Jair 79' (pen)
Toni Tahvanainen 39'
8/18/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 10Harjun stadion (Jyväskylä)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JJK34%
×Draw24%
AC Oulu42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJK
1.43
AC Oulu
1.63

AC Oulu creates 14% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 27 away

creates per match

JJK
1.74
AC Oulu
1.63

allows per match

JJK
1.63
AC Oulu
1.11

finishing

JJK+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

JJK or draw
58%
JJK or AC Oulu
76%
Draw or AC Oulu
66%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+
15%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals
76%
JJK 2+ goals
42%
JJK 3+ goals
17%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
80%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
48%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)
44%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.63 · 62 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 1.74 + AC Oulu defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.43

AC Oulu attack 1.63 + JJK defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JJK scores more
34%
level
24%
AC Oulu scores more
42%

AC Oulu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Manninen
39'
Toni Tahvanainen
79'
JairPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JJK vs AC Oulu

AC Oulu beat JJK 2-1 in Ykkönen on August 18, 2018.

Goals: M. Manninen (5'), Toni Tahvanainen (39'), Jair (79' pen).

The match was played at Harjun stadion (Jyväskylä).