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JJK vs AC Kajaani — Ykkönen 2018

JJK
JJK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
10/20/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 14Harjun stadion (Jyväskylä)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

JJK45%
×Draw22%
AC Kajaani33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJK
1.93
AC Kajaani
1.63

JJK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 39 away

creates per match

JJK
1.67
AC Kajaani
1.64

allows per match

JJK
1.62
AC Kajaani
2.18

finishing

JJK+0.00on par
AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

AC Kajaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

JJK or draw
67%
JJK or AC Kajaani
78%
Draw or AC Kajaani
55%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+
25%
AC Kajaani wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals
85%
JJK 2+ goals
57%
JJK 3+ goals
30%
AC Kajaani 1+ goals
80%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
48%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)
58%
AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.62 · 61 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 1.67 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.93

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + JJK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JJK scores more
45%
level
22%
AC Kajaani scores more
33%

JJK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JJK 1 – 2 AC Kajaani

AC Kajaani beat JJK 2-1 in Ykkönen on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Harjun stadion (Jyväskylä).