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JJ Urquiza vs Deportivo Muñiz — Primera C 2026

JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
8/10/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 21Estadio Ramón Roque Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

JJ Urquiza47%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Muñiz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJ Urquiza
1.22
Deportivo Muñiz
0.76

JJ Urquiza creates 61% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

creates per match

JJ Urquiza
1.09
Deportivo Muñiz
0.83

allows per match

JJ Urquiza
0.69
Deportivo Muñiz
1.34

finishing

JJ Urquiza+0.00on par
Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJ Urquiza ↓

Deportivo Muñiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JJ Urquiza or draw
77%
JJ Urquiza or Deportivo Muñiz
70%
Draw or Deportivo Muñiz
53%

Winning margin

JJ Urquiza wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

JJ Urquiza 1+ goals
70%
JJ Urquiza 2+ goals
34%
JJ Urquiza 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
53%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJ Urquiza at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.69 · 65 matches

Deportivo Muñiz away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJ Urquiza attack 1.09 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Deportivo Muñiz attack 0.83 + JJ Urquiza defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

JJ Urquiza scores more
47%
level
30%
Deportivo Muñiz scores more
23%

JJ Urquiza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "JJ Urquiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: JJ Urquiza 0–0 Deportivo Muñiz

JJ Urquiza and Deportivo Muñiz drew 0-0 in Primera C on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Roque Martín in Buenos Aires.