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JJ Urquiza vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
3/16/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 2Estadio Ramón Roque Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

JJ Urquiza42%
×Draw32%
Central Cordoba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJ Urquiza
1.08
Central Cordoba
0.79

JJ Urquiza creates 37% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 136 away

creates per match

JJ Urquiza
1.09
Central Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

JJ Urquiza
0.69
Central Cordoba
1.06

finishing

JJ Urquiza+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJ Urquiza ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JJ Urquiza or draw
74%
JJ Urquiza or Central Cordoba
68%
Draw or Central Cordoba
58%

Winning margin

JJ Urquiza wins by 2+
17%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JJ Urquiza 1+ goals
66%
JJ Urquiza 2+ goals
29%
JJ Urquiza 3+ goals
10%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
55%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
19%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)
61%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJ Urquiza at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.69 · 65 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJ Urquiza attack 1.09 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Central Cordoba attack 0.89 + JJ Urquiza defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JJ Urquiza scores more
42%
level
32%
Central Cordoba scores more
26%

JJ Urquiza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JJ Urquiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: JJ Urquiza 1–1 Central Cordoba

JJ Urquiza and Central Cordoba drew 1-1 in Primera C on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Roque Martín in Loma Hermosa, Provincia de Buenos Aires.