Jitex W 2–0 Team TG FF W: Result & Stats

Jitex W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Team TG FF W

M. Le Therisien 65'

A. Hellekant 62'

10/15/2022

Elitettan · Round 23Åbyvallen 1 Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Jitex W55%

×Draw21%

Team TG FF W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jitex WExpected goals in this matchTeam TG FF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.32

Jitex W

2.09

Team TG FF W

1.32

Jitex W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 26 away

2.03

creates per match

0.81

1.83

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Jitex W

2.03

Team TG FF W

0.81

allows per match

Jitex W

1.83

Team TG FF W

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jitex W+0.00on par

Team TG FF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jitex W ↓

Team TG FF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jitex W or draw

76%

Jitex W or Team TG FF W

79%

Draw or Team TG FF W

45%

Winning margin

Jitex W wins by 2+

33%

Team TG FF W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jitex W 1+ goals

88%

Jitex W 2+ goals

62%

Jitex W 3+ goals

34%

Team TG FF W 1+ goals

73%

Team TG FF W 2+ goals

38%

Team TG FF W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jitex W (draw refunded)

70%

Team TG FF W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jitex W at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

Team TG FF W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jitex W attack 2.03 + Team TG FF W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.09

Team TG FF W attack 0.81 + Jitex W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jitex W scores more

55%

level

21%

Team TG FF W scores more

24%

Jitex W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jitex W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

O. Strid← J. Hellström

62'

A. Hellekant

63'

E. Åström← P. Zarassi

65'

M. Le Therisien

70'

A. Uvell← E. Dahlin

71'

E. Abrahamsson← T. Wikström

76'

A. Ebbesson← M. Le Therisien

76'

B. Hultbäck Nattland← A. Hellekant

76'

F. Linderoth← I. Jacobson

83'

A. Svedberg← E. Ellman

83'

Z. Nduwimana← A. Brännström

Jitex

Team

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Therisien

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: K. Tornfalk

50'▲O. Strid←▼J. Hellström

76'▲A. Ebbesson←▼M. Le Therisien

76'▲B. Hultbäck Nattland←▼A. Hellekant

76'▲F. Linderoth←▼I. Jacobson

Jitex W substitutes

StridEbbessonNattlandLinderothTidblomLarssonLiwendahl

Manager: J. Wikström

63'▲E. Åström←▼P. Zarassi

70'▲A. Uvell←▼E. Dahlin

71'▲E. Abrahamsson←▼T. Wikström

83'▲A. Svedberg←▼E. Ellman

83'▲Z. Nduwimana←▼A. Brännström

Team TG FF W substitutes

ÅströmUvellAbrahamssonSvedbergNduwimanaLundgren