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Jiskra Rýmařov vs Viktorie Přerov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Jiskra Rýmařov
Jiskra Rýmařov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
9/9/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 6Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov46%
×Draw22%
Viktorie Přerov32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Rýmařov
1.97
Viktorie Přerov
1.62

Jiskra Rýmařov creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
1.60
Viktorie Přerov
1.51

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
1.73
Viktorie Přerov
2.34

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par
Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

Viktorie Přerov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw
68%
Jiskra Rýmařov or Viktorie Přerov
78%
Draw or Viktorie Přerov
54%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+
26%
Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals
86%
Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals
58%
Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals
31%
Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
80%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
48%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)
59%
Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.60 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.97

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more
46%
level
22%
Viktorie Přerov scores more
32%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jiskra Rýmařov vs Viktorie Přerov

Jiskra Rýmařov and Viktorie Přerov drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov in Rýmařov.