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Jiskra Rýmařov vs Třinec II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jiskra Rýmařov
Jiskra Rýmařov
CANC
13:00
Třinec II
Třinec II
3/6/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 8Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov43%
×Draw20%
Třinec II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Rýmařov
2.29
Třinec II
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 4 away

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
2.07
Třinec II
2.50

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
1.74
Třinec II
2.50

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par
Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

Třinec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw
63%
Jiskra Rýmařov or Třinec II
80%
Draw or Třinec II
57%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+
25%
Třinec II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals
90%
Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals
66%
Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals
40%
Třinec II 1+ goals
88%
Třinec II 2+ goals
62%
Třinec II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)
54%
Třinec II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 2.07 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.29

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more
43%
level
20%
Třinec II scores more
37%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jiskra Rýmařov vs Třinec II — Match Preview

Jiskra Rýmařov face Třinec II on March 6, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jiskra Rýmařov host Třinec II at Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.