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Jiskra Rýmařov vs Tatran Všechovice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Jiskra Rýmařov
Jiskra Rýmařov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tatran Všechovice
Tatran Všechovice
8/12/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 2Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov45%
×Draw21%
Tatran Všechovice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Rýmařov
2.05
Tatran Všechovice
1.75

Jiskra Rýmařov creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
1.60
Tatran Všechovice
1.76

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
1.73
Tatran Všechovice
2.51

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par
Tatran Všechovice+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

Tatran Všechovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw
66%
Jiskra Rýmařov or Tatran Všechovice
79%
Draw or Tatran Všechovice
55%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+
26%
Tatran Všechovice wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals
87%
Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals
61%
Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals
33%
Tatran Všechovice 1+ goals
83%
Tatran Všechovice 2+ goals
52%
Tatran Všechovice 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)
57%
Tatran Všechovice (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Tatran Všechovice away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.51 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.60 + Tatran Všechovice defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.05

Tatran Všechovice attack 1.76 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more
45%
level
21%
Tatran Všechovice scores more
34%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Jiskra Rýmařov 1–1 Tatran Všechovice

Jiskra Rýmařov and Tatran Všechovice drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov in Rýmařov.