Jiskra Rýmařov 1–4 Šternberk: Result & Stats

Jiskra Rýmařov

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Šternberk

4/6/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 20Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov40%

×Draw24%

Šternberk36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiskra RýmařovExpected goals in this matchŠternberk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.47

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.56

Šternberk

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

1.60

creates per match

1.21

1.73

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.60

Šternberk

1.21

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.73

Šternberk

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

Šternberk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

Šternberk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw

64%

Jiskra Rýmařov or Šternberk

76%

Draw or Šternberk

60%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+

20%

Šternberk wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals

79%

Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals

46%

Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals

21%

Šternberk 1+ goals

77%

Šternberk 2+ goals

43%

Šternberk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)

53%

Šternberk (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Šternberk away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.60 + Šternberk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Šternberk attack 1.21 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more

40%

level

24%

Šternberk scores more

36%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff