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Jiskra Rýmařov vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jiskra Rýmařov
Jiskra Rýmařov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
10/22/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 12Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov61%
×Draw19%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Rýmařov
2.39
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.31

Jiskra Rýmařov creates 82% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
2.07
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
0.89

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
1.74
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.71

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw
80%
Jiskra Rýmařov or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
81%
Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
39%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+
39%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals
91%
Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals
69%
Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals
42%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
73%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
38%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)
75%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 2.07 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.39

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more
61%
level
19%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
20%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Jiskra Rýmařov 2–2 Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Jiskra Rýmařov and Slavoj Olympia Bruntál drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov in Rýmařov.