Jiskra Rýmařov 1–2 Kostelec na Hané: Result & Stats

Jiskra Rýmařov

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kostelec na Hané

3/9/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 16Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov50%

×Draw23%

Kostelec na Hané28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiskra RýmařovExpected goals in this matchKostelec na Hané

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.33

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.86

Kostelec na Hané

1.33

Jiskra Rýmařov creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

0.93

1.73

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.60

Kostelec na Hané

0.93

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.73

Kostelec na Hané

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

Kostelec na Hané →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw

72%

Jiskra Rýmařov or Kostelec na Hané

77%

Draw or Kostelec na Hané

50%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+

28%

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals

84%

Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals

55%

Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals

28%

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals

74%

Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals

38%

Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)

64%

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Kostelec na Hané away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.60 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kostelec na Hané attack 0.93 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more

50%

level

23%

Kostelec na Hané scores more

28%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff