Jiskra Rýmařov 1–1 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Jiskra Rýmařov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

HFK Olomouc

6/8/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 29Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov50%

×Draw22%

HFK Olomouc28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiskra RýmařovExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.47

Jiskra Rýmařov

2.03

HFK Olomouc

1.47

Jiskra Rýmařov creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

1.60

creates per match

1.21

1.73

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.60

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.73

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw

72%

Jiskra Rýmařov or HFK Olomouc

78%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

50%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+

29%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals

87%

Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals

60%

Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals

33%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

77%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

43%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)

64%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.60 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.03

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more

50%

level

22%

HFK Olomouc scores more

28%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff