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Jiskra Rýmařov vs Heřmanice Slezská — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jiskra Rýmařov
Jiskra Rýmařov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
5/11/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 16Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov78%
×Draw13%
Heřmanice Slezská10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Rýmařov
3.24
Heřmanice Slezská
1.10

Jiskra Rýmařov creates 195% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
2.07
Heřmanice Slezská
0.47

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov
1.74
Heřmanice Slezská
4.41

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par
Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw
90%
Jiskra Rýmařov or Heřmanice Slezská
87%
Draw or Heřmanice Slezská
22%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+
59%
Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals
96%
Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals
83%
Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals
61%
Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
67%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
30%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)
89%
Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 2.07 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 3.24

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more
78%
level
13%
Heřmanice Slezská scores more
10%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Jiskra Rýmařov 3–0 Heřmanice Slezská

Jiskra Rýmařov beat Heřmanice Slezská 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov in Rýmařov.