Jiskra Rýmařov 2–0 Beskyd Frenštát: Result & Stats

Jiskra Rýmařov

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Beskyd Frenštát

3/25/2023

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 15Hřiště TJ Jiskra Rýmařov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Jiskra Rýmařov54%

×Draw20%

Beskyd Frenštát25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiskra RýmařovExpected goals in this matchBeskyd Frenštát

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.48

Jiskra Rýmařov

2.22

Beskyd Frenštát

1.48

Jiskra Rýmařov creates 50% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

2.07

creates per match

1.23

1.74

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Jiskra Rýmařov

2.07

Beskyd Frenštát

1.23

allows per match

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.74

Beskyd Frenštát

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Rýmařov ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Jiskra Rýmařov or draw

75%

Jiskra Rýmařov or Beskyd Frenštát

80%

Draw or Beskyd Frenštát

46%

Winning margin

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+

33%

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals

89%

Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals

65%

Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals

38%

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

77%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

43%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)

68%

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Rýmařov at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 2.07 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.22

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more

54%

level

20%

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

25%

Jiskra Rýmařov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jiskra Rýmařov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff