Jiskra Domažlice 4–0 Sokol Hostouň: Result & Stats

Jiskra Domažlice

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sokol Hostouň

9/7/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 5Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Jiskra Domažlice64%

×Draw19%

Sokol Hostouň17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiskra DomažliceExpected goals in this matchSokol Hostouň

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.10

Jiskra Domažlice

2.28

Sokol Hostouň

1.10

Jiskra Domažlice creates 107% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

2.74

creates per match

1.03

1.17

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Jiskra Domažlice

2.74

Sokol Hostouň

1.03

allows per match

Jiskra Domažlice

1.17

Sokol Hostouň

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiskra Domažlice+0.00on par

Sokol Hostouň+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Domažlice ↓

Sokol Hostouň →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jiskra Domažlice or draw

83%

Jiskra Domažlice or Sokol Hostouň

81%

Draw or Sokol Hostouň

36%

Winning margin

Jiskra Domažlice wins by 2+

41%

Sokol Hostouň wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jiskra Domažlice 1+ goals

90%

Jiskra Domažlice 2+ goals

66%

Jiskra Domažlice 3+ goals

39%

Sokol Hostouň 1+ goals

67%

Sokol Hostouň 2+ goals

30%

Sokol Hostouň 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Domažlice (draw refunded)

79%

Sokol Hostouň (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Domažlice at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.17 · 88 matches

Sokol Hostouň away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.82 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Domažlice attack 2.74 + Sokol Hostouň defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.28

Sokol Hostouň attack 1.03 + Jiskra Domažlice defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Jiskra Domažlice scores more

64%

level

19%

Sokol Hostouň scores more

17%

Jiskra Domažlice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jiskra Domažlice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff