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Jiskra Domažlice vs Povltava FA — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Jiskra Domažlice
Jiskra Domažlice
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Povltava FA
Povltava FA
10/12/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 10Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jiskra Domažlice60%
×Draw19%
Povltava FA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Domažlice
2.42
Povltava FA
1.38

Jiskra Domažlice creates 75% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 64 away

creates per match

Jiskra Domažlice
2.74
Povltava FA
1.58

allows per match

Jiskra Domažlice
1.17
Povltava FA
2.09

finishing

Jiskra Domažlice+0.00on par
Povltava FA+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Domažlice ↓

Povltava FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Jiskra Domažlice or draw
79%
Jiskra Domažlice or Povltava FA
81%
Draw or Povltava FA
40%

Winning margin

Jiskra Domažlice wins by 2+
39%
Povltava FA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jiskra Domažlice 1+ goals
91%
Jiskra Domažlice 2+ goals
69%
Jiskra Domažlice 3+ goals
43%
Povltava FA 1+ goals
75%
Povltava FA 2+ goals
40%
Povltava FA 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Domažlice (draw refunded)
74%
Povltava FA (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Domažlice at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.17 · 88 matches

Povltava FA away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Domažlice attack 2.74 + Povltava FA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.42

Povltava FA attack 1.58 + Jiskra Domažlice defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jiskra Domažlice scores more
60%
level
19%
Povltava FA scores more
21%

Jiskra Domažlice at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jiskra Domažlice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jiskra Domažlice vs Povltava FA

Jiskra Domažlice beat Povltava FA 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL A on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Domažlice.