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Jiskra Domažlice II vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jiskra Domažlice II
Jiskra Domažlice II
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
8/21/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 3Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jiskra Domažlice II33%
×Draw22%
Sokol Lom45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.57
Sokol Lom
1.88

Sokol Lom creates 20% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.67
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Jiskra Domažlice II
1.73
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Jiskra Domažlice II+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Domažlice II ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jiskra Domažlice II or draw
55%
Jiskra Domažlice II or Sokol Lom
78%
Draw or Sokol Lom
67%

Winning margin

Jiskra Domažlice II wins by 2+
15%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jiskra Domažlice II 1+ goals
79%
Jiskra Domažlice II 2+ goals
46%
Jiskra Domažlice II 3+ goals
21%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
85%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
56%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Domažlice II (draw refunded)
42%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Domažlice II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.73 · 60 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Domažlice II attack 1.67 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Jiskra Domažlice II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jiskra Domažlice II scores more
33%
level
22%
Sokol Lom scores more
45%

Sokol Lom at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jiskra Domažlice II vs Sokol Lom

Jiskra Domažlice II beat Sokol Lom 5-3 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Domažlice.