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JIPPO vs Sudet — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

JIPPO
JIPPO
FT
4 – 1
Sudet
Sudet
8/10/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 15Mehtimäki tekonurmi (Joensuu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

JIPPO76%
×Draw15%
Sudet9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
2.61
Sudet
0.78

JIPPO creates 235% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 11 away

creates per match

JIPPO
1.95
Sudet
0.82

allows per match

JIPPO
0.75
Sudet
3.27

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
Sudet+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

Sudet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
91%
JIPPO or Sudet
85%
Draw or Sudet
24%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
54%
Sudet wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
93%
JIPPO 2+ goals
73%
JIPPO 3+ goals
47%
Sudet 1+ goals
54%
Sudet 2+ goals
18%
Sudet 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
89%
Sudet (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Sudet away — creates 0.82, concedes 3.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.95 + Sudet defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.61

Sudet attack 0.82 + JIPPO defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

JIPPO scores more
76%
level
15%
Sudet scores more
9%

JIPPO at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JIPPO 4 – 1 Sudet

JIPPO beat Sudet 4-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Mehtimäki tekonurmi (Joensuu).