JIPPO 1–2 Rops: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

JIPPO

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rops

N. Tykkyläinen 40'

M. Adams 86'

L. Kuittinen 57'

5/13/2021

Ykkönen · Round 2Mehtimäki tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

JIPPO31%

×Draw24%

Rops45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JIPPOExpected goals in this matchRops

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.64

JIPPO

1.31

Rops

1.64

Rops creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

1.00

creates per match

1.55

1.73

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

JIPPO

1.00

Rops

1.55

allows per match

JIPPO

1.73

Rops

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par

Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

Rops →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw

55%

JIPPO or Rops

76%

Draw or Rops

69%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+

13%

Rops wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals

73%

JIPPO 2+ goals

38%

JIPPO 3+ goals

14%

Rops 1+ goals

81%

Rops 2+ goals

49%

Rops 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)

40%

Rops (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Rops away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.00 + Rops defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rops attack 1.55 + JIPPO defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JIPPO scores more

31%

level

24%

Rops scores more

45%

Rops at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

39'

40'

51'

57'

61'

V. Saarikoski← N. Roffelsen

64'

N. Niemeläinen← T. Tainio

70'

M. Turunen← Joona Hiltunen

75'

V. Pyyny← O. Kemppainen

75'

S. Sipola← S. Vujaklija

81'

J. Tolonen← J. Harju

85'

N. Tykkylainen

86'

M. Adams

87'

V. Hänninen← D. Lutumba-Pitah

88'

E. Kantola← S. Petshi

JIPPO

Rops

1

Mujunen

5

Vervoort

2

▼

Kemppaine

4

⚽

Adams

17

⚽

Kuittinen

22

▼

Petshi

10

Kaukua

6

▼

Roffelsen

34

▼

Vujaklija

20

Roiha

13

▼

Lutumba-P

22

Sorsa

3

▼

Harju

13

▼

2

7

4

6

8

21

⚽

Tykkyläin

14

▼

Hiltunen

10

Inalien

Manager: J. Leppälahti

64'▲N. Niemeläinen←▼T. Tainio

70'▲M. Turunen←▼Joona Hiltunen

81'▲J. Tolonen←▼J. Harju

JIPPO substitutes

17Niemeläinen30Turunen24Tolonen19Hallikainen23Kettunen26Saarenkunnas27Kaikkonen

Manager: M. Mannila

61'▲V. Saarikoski←▼N. Roffelsen

75'▲V. Pyyny←▼O. Kemppainen

75'▲S. Sipola←▼S. Vujaklija

87'▲V. Hänninen←▼D. Lutumba-Pitah

88'▲E. Kantola←▼S. Petshi

Rops substitutes

8Saarikoski7Pyyny25Sipola18Hänninen26Kantola12Rantala28Luiro

Ykkönen: JIPPO 1–2 Rops

Rops beat JIPPO 2-1 in Ykkönen on May 13, 2021.

Goals: N. Tykkyläinen (40'), L. Kuittinen (57'), M. Adams (86').

The match was played at Mehtimäki tekonurmi in Joensuu.

JIPPO vs Rops — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: JIPPO 1–2 Rops