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JIPPO vs PeKa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

JIPPO
JIPPO
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PeKa
PeKa
7/2/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 7Joensuun Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

JIPPO69%
×Draw17%
PeKa14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
2.48
PeKa
1.01

JIPPO creates 146% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 22 away

creates per match

JIPPO
1.95
PeKa
1.27

allows per match

JIPPO
0.75
PeKa
3.00

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
PeKa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

PeKa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
86%
JIPPO or PeKa
83%
Draw or PeKa
31%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
47%
PeKa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
92%
JIPPO 2+ goals
70%
JIPPO 3+ goals
44%
PeKa 1+ goals
64%
PeKa 2+ goals
27%
PeKa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
83%
PeKa (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

PeKa away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.95 + PeKa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

PeKa attack 1.27 + JIPPO defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

JIPPO scores more
69%
level
17%
PeKa scores more
14%

JIPPO at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JIPPO vs PeKa

JIPPO beat PeKa 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Joensuun Keskuskenttä in Joensuu.