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JIPPO vs Lahti — Suomen Cup 2018

JIPPO
JIPPO
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lahti
Lahti
4/26/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMehtimäki tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

JIPPO16%
×Draw20%
Lahti64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
0.96
Lahti
2.11

Lahti creates 120% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

JIPPO
0.71
Lahti
2.65

allows per match

JIPPO
1.57
Lahti
1.22

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
36%
JIPPO or Lahti
80%
Draw or Lahti
84%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
5%
Lahti wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
62%
JIPPO 2+ goals
25%
JIPPO 3+ goals
7%
Lahti 1+ goals
88%
Lahti 2+ goals
62%
Lahti 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
20%
Lahti (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 0.71 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Lahti attack 2.65 + JIPPO defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

JIPPO scores more
16%
level
20%
Lahti scores more
64%

Lahti at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: JIPPO 1–2 Lahti

Lahti beat JIPPO 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Mehtimäki tekonurmi in Joensuu.