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JIPPO vs Klubi-04 — Suomen Cup 2018

JIPPO
JIPPO
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Klubi-04
Klubi-04
2/7/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 2Rantakylä LH TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

JIPPO3%
×Draw8%
Klubi-0489%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
0.55
Klubi-04
3.49

Klubi-04 creates 535% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

JIPPO
0.71
Klubi-04
5.40

allows per match

JIPPO
1.57
Klubi-04
0.40

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

Klubi-04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–313%
0–412%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
11%
JIPPO or Klubi-04
92%
Draw or Klubi-04
97%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
1%
Klubi-04 wins by 2+
74%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
42%
JIPPO 2+ goals
11%
JIPPO 3+ goals
2%
Klubi-04 1+ goals
97%
Klubi-04 2+ goals
85%
Klubi-04 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
3%
Klubi-04 (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 5.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 0.71 + Klubi-04 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.55

Klubi-04 attack 5.40 + JIPPO defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 3.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

JIPPO scores more
3%
level
8%
Klubi-04 scores more
89%

Klubi-04 at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JIPPO 1 – 0 Klubi-04

JIPPO beat Klubi-04 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Rantakylä LH TN in Joensuu.