JIPPO 3–1 KäPa: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

JIPPO

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

KäPa

M. Turunen 84'

J. Kiuru 48', 10'

E. Kallio 90'

6/29/2025

Ykkösliiga · Round 12Ilosaarirock Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

JIPPO57%

×Draw21%

KäPa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JIPPOExpected goals in this matchKäPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.18

JIPPO

2.02

KäPa

1.18

JIPPO creates 71% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 38 away

1.57

creates per match

1.47

0.89

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

JIPPO

1.57

KäPa

1.47

allows per match

JIPPO

0.89

KäPa

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par

KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

KäPa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw

78%

JIPPO or KäPa

79%

Draw or KäPa

43%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+

34%

KäPa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals

87%

JIPPO 2+ goals

60%

JIPPO 3+ goals

33%

KäPa 1+ goals

69%

KäPa 2+ goals

33%

KäPa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)

72%

KäPa (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.57 + KäPa defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.02

KäPa attack 1.47 + JIPPO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

JIPPO scores more

57%

level

21%

KäPa scores more

22%

JIPPO at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

24'

30'

45'

48'

54'

J. Huovinen← N. Leinonen

69'

M. Turunen← O. Pihlaja

75'

R. Huhtamaki← S. Anini

75'

W. Haapiainen← A. Jouhi

75'

S. Herronen← Y. Lika

82'

B. Montonen← Y. Kikuchi

82'

D. Ripatti← N. Heikurinen

84'

M. Turunen

89'

E. Venalainen← J. Kiuru

89'

E. Viitaniemi← L. Forss

90+2'

M. Tainio

90'

E. Kallio

JIPPO

KäPa

1

Piispa

3

▼

Heikurine

4

Hietalaht

6

Nurmi

7

▼

Leinonen

11

Manneh

14

▼

Lika

17

▼

Anini

27

⚽

Kallio

31

▼

36

1

3

4

▼

Pihlaja

6

Watanabe

16

Forsman

20

▼

Forss

21

Tykkylain

24

Haataja

29

A

Tainio

39

⚽2

▼

Kiuru

41

▼

Kikuchi

Manager: M. Hallikainen

69'▲M. Turunen←▼O. Pihlaja

82'▲B. Montonen←▼Y. Kikuchi

89'▲E. Venalainen←▼J. Kiuru

89'▲E. Viitaniemi←▼L. Forss

JIPPO substitutes

27Kaikkonen2Mahugo5Huhtala9Turunen11Smith19Venalainen25Viitaniemi49Montonen74Koistinen

Manager: L. Lummepuro

54'▲J. Huovinen←▼N. Leinonen

75'▲R. Huhtamaki←▼S. Anini

75'▲W. Haapiainen←▼A. Jouhi

75'▲S. Herronen←▼Y. Lika

82'▲D. Ripatti←▼N. Heikurinen

KäPa substitutes

30Collin5Lindberg8Huhtamaki9Haapiainen10Ripatti12Herronen18Valakari23Huovinen25Puputti

Ykkösliiga: JIPPO 3–1 KäPa

JIPPO beat KäPa 3-1 in Ykkösliiga on June 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Kiuru (10', 48'), M. Turunen (84'), E. Kallio (90').

The match was played at Ilosaarirock Stadion in Joensuu.

JIPPO vs KäPa — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkösliiga: JIPPO 3–1 KäPa