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JIPPO vs JJK — Suomen Cup 2018

JIPPO
JIPPO
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
JJK
JJK
5/3/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundRantakylä LH TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

JIPPO19%
×Draw23%
JJK58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
0.92
JJK
1.79

JJK creates 95% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

JIPPO
0.71
JJK
2.00

allows per match

JIPPO
1.57
JJK
1.14

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
JJK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

JJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
42%
JIPPO or JJK
77%
Draw or JJK
81%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
6%
JJK wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
60%
JIPPO 2+ goals
23%
JIPPO 3+ goals
7%
JJK 1+ goals
83%
JJK 2+ goals
53%
JJK 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
25%
JJK (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

JJK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 0.71 + JJK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

JJK attack 2.00 + JIPPO defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

JIPPO scores more
19%
level
23%
JJK scores more
58%

JJK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: JIPPO 1–1 JJK

JIPPO and JJK drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on May 3, 2022.

The match was played at Rantakylä LH TN in Joensuu.