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JIPPO vs Inter Turku — Suomen Cup 2018

JIPPO
JIPPO
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
6/17/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 8th FinalsMehtimäki tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

JIPPO15%
×Draw22%
Inter Turku64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JIPPO
0.78
Inter Turku
1.90

Inter Turku creates 144% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

JIPPO
0.71
Inter Turku
2.23

allows per match

JIPPO
1.57
Inter Turku
0.86

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw
36%
JIPPO or Inter Turku
78%
Draw or Inter Turku
85%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+
4%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals
54%
JIPPO 2+ goals
18%
JIPPO 3+ goals
4%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
85%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
56%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)
19%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 0.71 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + JIPPO defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

JIPPO scores more
15%
level
22%
Inter Turku scores more
64%

Inter Turku at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: JIPPO 0–1 Inter Turku

Inter Turku beat JIPPO 1-0 in Suomen Cup on June 17, 2020.

The match was played at Mehtimäki tekonurmi in Joensuu.