JIPPO 2–0 FF Jaro: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

JIPPO

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FF Jaro

Y. Kikuchi 90'

N. Tykkyläinen 28'

4/28/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 4Mehtimäki tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

JIPPO42%

×Draw26%

FF Jaro32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JIPPOExpected goals in this matchFF Jaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.22

JIPPO

1.44

FF Jaro

1.22

JIPPO creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 13 away

1.57

creates per match

1.54

0.89

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

JIPPO

1.57

FF Jaro

1.54

allows per match

JIPPO

0.89

FF Jaro

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JIPPO+0.00on par

FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JIPPO ↓

FF Jaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

JIPPO or draw

68%

JIPPO or FF Jaro

74%

Draw or FF Jaro

58%

Winning margin

JIPPO wins by 2+

20%

FF Jaro wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

JIPPO 1+ goals

76%

JIPPO 2+ goals

42%

JIPPO 3+ goals

18%

FF Jaro 1+ goals

70%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

34%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

JIPPO (draw refunded)

57%

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JIPPO at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JIPPO attack 1.57 + FF Jaro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

FF Jaro attack 1.54 + JIPPO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JIPPO scores more

42%

level

26%

FF Jaro scores more

32%

JIPPO at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

28'

45+1'

45+1'

45'

46'

M. Kronholm← A. Hotta

48'

S. Eremenko

57'

S. Saarenkunnas← Victor de Paula

69'

J. Myrevik

79'

N. Tykkylainen

83'

A. Ramsay← A. Vidjeskog

85'

T. Smith← E. Tanninen

90+6'

S. Saarenkunnas

90'

Y. Kikuchi

JIPPO

FF

1

12

4

3

5

19

▼

Hotta

10

Eremenko

16

▼

21

66

11

1

2

▼

Paula

20

Forss

24

Haataja

41

⚽

Kikuchi

3

Ohashi

6

Watanabe

21

⚽

Tykkyläin

9

Eerola

4

▼

Pihlaja

40

▼

Tanninen

Manager: M. Hallikainen

45'▲J. Kiuru←▼O. Pihlaja

57'▲S. Saarenkunnas←▼Victor de Paula

85'▲T. Smith←▼E. Tanninen

JIPPO substitutes

39Kiuru26Saarenkunnas8Smith7Malinen11Aho14Nuutinen22Vainikainen

Manager: N. Vidjeskog

46'▲M. Kronholm←▼A. Hotta

83'▲A. Ramsay←▼A. Vidjeskog

FF Jaro substitutes

15Kronholm8Ramsay22Björkskog2Sotelo77Enqvist7Landén

JIPPO 2 – 0 FF Jaro

JIPPO beat FF Jaro 2-0 in Ykkösliiga on April 28, 2024.

Goals: N. Tykkyläinen (28'), Y. Kikuchi (90').

The match was played at Mehtimäki tekonurmi in Joensuu.

JIPPO vs FF Jaro — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

JIPPO 2 – 0 FF Jaro