Jinju Citizen 2–1 Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Jinju Citizen

FT

2 – 1

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

6/21/2026

K4 League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jinju Citizen44%

×Draw23%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jinju CitizenExpected goals in this matchJungnang Chorus Mustang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.52

Jinju Citizen

1.79

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.52

Jinju Citizen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.44

creates per match

2.14

0.89

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Jinju Citizen

2.44

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.14

allows per match

Jinju Citizen

0.89

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jinju Citizen+0.00on par

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinju Citizen ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jinju Citizen or draw

67%

Jinju Citizen or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

77%

Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

56%

Winning margin

Jinju Citizen wins by 2+

24%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jinju Citizen 1+ goals

83%

Jinju Citizen 2+ goals

53%

Jinju Citizen 3+ goals

26%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

78%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

45%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)

57%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinju Citizen at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinju Citizen attack 2.44 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.79

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 2.14 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jinju Citizen scores more

44%

level

23%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

33%

Jinju Citizen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff