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Jinju Citizen vs Jecheon Citizen — K4 League 2026

Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
FT
2 – 0
Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
6/6/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jinju Citizen54%
×Draw24%
Jecheon Citizen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinju Citizen
1.72
Jecheon Citizen
1.00

Jinju Citizen creates 72% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jinju Citizen
2.44
Jecheon Citizen
1.11

allows per match

Jinju Citizen
0.89
Jecheon Citizen
1.00

finishing

Jinju Citizen+0.00on par
Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinju Citizen ↓

Jecheon Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jinju Citizen or draw
78%
Jinju Citizen or Jecheon Citizen
76%
Draw or Jecheon Citizen
46%

Winning margin

Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
30%
Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
82%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
51%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
25%
Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
63%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
26%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
71%
Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinju Citizen at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Jecheon Citizen away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinju Citizen attack 2.44 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.11 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jinju Citizen scores more
54%
level
24%
Jecheon Citizen scores more
22%

Jinju Citizen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jinju Citizen vs Jecheon Citizen

Jinju Citizen beat Jecheon Citizen 2-0 in K4 League on June 6, 2026.