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Jinju Citizen vs Geumsan Insam — K4 League 2026

Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
FT
1 – 0
Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
4/19/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jinju Citizen50%
×Draw22%
Geumsan Insam28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinju Citizen
1.94
Geumsan Insam
1.39

Jinju Citizen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jinju Citizen
2.44
Geumsan Insam
1.89

allows per match

Jinju Citizen
0.89
Geumsan Insam
1.44

finishing

Jinju Citizen+0.00on par
Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinju Citizen ↓

Geumsan Insam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jinju Citizen or draw
72%
Jinju Citizen or Geumsan Insam
78%
Draw or Geumsan Insam
50%

Winning margin

Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
29%
Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
86%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
58%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
30%
Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
75%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
40%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
65%
Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinju Citizen at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinju Citizen attack 2.44 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jinju Citizen scores more
50%
level
22%
Geumsan Insam scores more
28%

Jinju Citizen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Jinju Citizen 1–0 Geumsan Insam

Jinju Citizen beat Geumsan Insam 1-0 in K4 League on April 19, 2026.